“This is a pivotal year for fair housing,” said Lisa Rice, National Fair Housing Alliance president and CEO. “As the 2018 trends report shows, we must put an end to the many institutionalized barriers that prevent too many families in this country from fair access to housing.”
More and more, this outlook is becoming the norm for fair housing groups, saying it is time to end fair housing discrimination.
In April, the Fair Housing Act marked its 50th anniversary, a marker celebrated by fair housing groups across the country and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Now, the NFHA released its 2018 Fair Housing Trends Report: Making Every Neighborhood a Place of Opportunity.
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In 2017, there were 28,843 reported housing discrimination complaints, a slight increase from complaints from the 28,181 complaints reported in 2016. However, most of these complaints, about 71.3%, were handled by private, nonprofit fair housing organizations.
HUD, on the other hand, processed just 1,311 complaints, less than 5% of the total, according to the report. State and local governmental Fair Housing Assistance Program agencies processes 6,896 complaints and the Department of Justice brought 41 cases.
While the total number of fair housing complaints increased in 2017, HUD and the FHAP processed fewer complaints than the 1,371 and 7,030 complaints reported in 2016, respectively. The number of complaints processed by the DOJ increased by just one, up from 40 cases in 2016.
But while government agencies might be slowly increasing their involvement in fair housing cases, private fair housing organizations handling the majority of complaints is nothing new, as shown in the chart below, which dates back to 2008.
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(Source: NFHA)
And according the new report from NFHA, that is the problem. The biggest obstacle to fair housing rights is the federal government’s failure to enforce the law vigorously, the report explained.
“We must commit to making every neighborhood a place of opportunity for its residents and to making all communities open to all people, regardless of race, national origin, disability or other protected status,” Rice said. “It has been 50 years, and the Fair Housing Act still has not been fully implemented. We cannot build a thriving society as long as our nation is plagued by discrimination, segregation, and severe economic inequality.”
In 2017, the most common types of fair housing complaints included complaints based on disability at 57%, race at 19% and family status at 9%.
Digital insurance agency and 2018 HousingWire Tech100 winner Matic announced recently it has named Shahrzad “Shaz” Kojouri as vice president of legal and compliance.
Kojouri, a licensed attorney with more than 15 years of experience in corporate compliance, will have responsibility over corporate governance, regulatory compliance and vendor management at Matic. Prior to joining Matic, Kojouri was assistant general counsel for nonprofit student loan provider AccessLex Institute.
Before joining AccessLex Institute, Kojouri oversaw regulatory compliance testing and Consumer Finance Protection Bureau readiness for mortgage lender New Penn Financial. She joined New Penn in 2009, in the aftermath of the subprime mortgage crisis, and guided the lender through intense regulatory changes.
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“Matic’s strategic partners count on us to hold ourselves to the highest standards in regulatory compliance and corporate governance, and we take that commitment very seriously,” said Matic CEO Aaron Schiff. “We welcome Shaz to the team and look forward to working with her to deliver an even higher level of compliance assurance to our customers.”
“Spending much of the last 10 years inside a top national lender has allowed me to bring a thorough and nuanced understanding of mortgage regulations to my work with Matic,” said Kojouri, who officially joined in the Matic team in January. “I look forward to helping Matic and its clients navigate these complex regulations with confidence.”
Is a combination of high rents and shifting demographics driving a move from renting to buying?
The latest data from the Census Bureau shows that may be exactly what’s happening.
On Thursday, the Census released its quarterly report on residential vacancies and homeownership. And the report had some good news and bad news, depending on which industry you’re in.
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For those who make their living via home buying, the news was mostly good. Homeownership held steady at 64.2%, demonstrating that there may be some underlying strength in the recent increases in homeownership.
But the news wasn’t quite so sunny in the rental world.
While the rental vacancy rate (units that remain unrented) held steady at 7%, the number of rental households fell for the fourth straight quarter.
According to the Census estimates, there were roughly 286,000 fewer renter households during the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of 2017.
Overall, there were approximately 43 million rental households in the U.S. in the first quarter, down from 43.287 million in first quarter of 2017.
Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist and founder of Veritas Urbis Economics, noted that the decrease in rental households is sign that more renters are becoming buyers.
“The fact that we now have four consecutive quarters where owner households increased while renters households fell is a strong sign households are making the switch from renting to buying,” McLaughlin said. “This is a trend that multifamily builders, investors, and landlords should take note of.”
McLaughlin went a step further, suggesting that landlords and multifamily homebuilders should be “nervous” about the seeming shift to buying. “This could lead to less demand for rental units this year, and downward pressure on rents,” McLaughlin said.
McLaughlin also noted that demographics may be playing a role in the shift between renting and buying.
“Households under 35 – which represent the largest potential pool of new homeowners in the U.S. – have shown some of the largest gains,” McLaughlin said. “While they only make up a third of all homebuyers, the steady uptick in their homeownership rate over the past year suggests their enormous purchasing power may be finally coming to housing market.”
The downward pressure on rents may be needed, as the Census report showed that during the first quarter, median asking rents rose to the highest level since 1988, which is as far as back the Census data goes.
(Click to enlarge. Image courtesy of the Census Bureau.)
According to the Census report, the median asking rent was $954 in the first quarter, up $80 from the first quarter of last year. It’s also up $44 from the fourth quarter of 2017. The previous high was $912, which was recorded during the 3rd quarter of 2017.
Rent hit record levels in each of the four regions as well. In the Northeast, the median asking rent rose from $1,153 in the fourth quarter to $1,279 in the first quarter. In the same time period last year, the median asking rent was $1,057.
In the Midwest, the median asking rent climbed to $764, up from $725 in the fourth quarter and $716 in 2017’s first quarter.
In the South, the increase was much slighter, with rent rising from $906 in the fourth quarter to $907 in the first quarter. In the first quarter of last year, the rent was $847.
In the West, the increase was much more significant. In the first quarter, the median asking rent was $1,345, which was up from $1,210 in the fourth quarter and $1,132 in the first quarter of 2017.
In a note sent out after the report’s release, Matthew Pointon, property economist at Capital Economics, suggested that the rental data may actually be a little rosier than it appears.
“Given the number of existing homes for sale recently dropped to a record low, it is no surprise that the homeowner vacancy rate fell to 1.5% in the first-quarter, the joint-lowest rate for 24 years,” Pointon wrote.
“That has put a stop to what had been a gradual rise in the homeownership rate. It is also supporting rental demand. Despite a large rise in the number of rental apartments hitting the market over the past couple of years, the multifamily rental vacancy rate has held steady at just over 8% for the past six-months,” Pointon added.
Pointon said that the 7% overall rental vacancy rate is low by historical standards, and suggested that the news may show that multifamily housing is on firmer footing than it appears.
“At 8.2%, the multifamily rental vacancy rate is down marginally from 8.3% in the final quarter of last year, and suggests concerns about a large degree of oversupply of rental apartments is overblown,” Pointon said. “While a large number of apartments are being built, the lack of homes to buy is supporting rental demand. In turn, that argues against a sharp slowdown in rental growth this year.”
The homeownership rate was not statistically different from last year in the first quarter of 2018, according to the latest Quarterly Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The homeownership rate increased just slightly to 64.2% in the first quarter, up from 63.6% in the first quarter of 2017 and unchanged from the fourth quarter, the report showed.
As the chart below shows, these rates remain significantly below historical levels and only began increasing once again in 2016.
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(Source: U.S. Census Bureau)
“Today’s Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Survey data release for 2018 Q1 shows the homeownership rate ticked upward on a year-over-year basis for five consecutive quarters, but held steady from 2017 Q4,” Veritas Urbis Economics Founder and Chief Economist Ralph McLaughlin said.
Almost all age groups saw an increase in homeownership rate – except those at the youngest and oldest ends of the spectrum.
Millennials saw their homeownership rate fall once again as the rate for those under 36 years decreased from 36% in the fourth quarter to 35.3% in the first quarter. However, this is still up from 34.3% in the first quarter of 2017.
And one expert pointed out that even with quarterly drop, Millennials are still proving resilient amid difficult home buying conditions.
“Millennials have emerged as the most dogged homebuyers with those under 35 far outpacing the overall annual homeownership rate change, despite contending with the most vexing portion of the housing market,” Trulia Senior Economist Cheryl Young said. “Millennials make up the largest share of those seeking starter homes, a portion of the market that saw inventory plummet 14.2% and prices leap nearly 10% year-over-year in Q1 2017.”
Those ages 35 to 44 increased their homeownership rate from 58.9% in the fourth quarter and 59% in the first quarter of 2017 to 59.8% in the first quarter this year. Those ages 45 to 54 years increased from 69.5% in the fourth quarter and 69.4% last year to 70% in the first quarter. Those ages 55 to 64 years increased their homeownership rate from 75.3% in the fourth quarter to 75.4% in the first quarter. However, this was down slightly from 75.6% in the first quarter 2017.
But in the next age group, once again homeownership drops. For those ages 65 and older, the homeownership rate decreased from 79.2% in the fourth quarter and from 78.6% in the first quarter of 2017 to 78.5% in the first quarter this year.
Among all ethnic groups, and this should come as no surprise, Hispanics were the only demographic to see their homeownership rates grow both from last quarter and last year. Among the Hispanic population, the homeownership rate grew from 46.6% in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter of 2017 to 48.4% in the first quarter this year.
Why is this no surprise? Because last year a report from the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals showed the Hispanic homeownership rate accounted for 74.9% of the total net growth in the overall homeownership rate in the U.S.
The White homeownership rate decreased from 71.8% last year and 72.7% last quarter to 72.4% in the first quarter. The Black homeownership rate, while up slightly from 42.1% in the fourth quarter, decreased from 42.7% in the first quarter of 2017 to 42.2% in the first quarter this year. Finally, the Asian, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander rate decreased from 58.2% in the fourth quarter but increased from 56.8% last year to 57.3% in the first quarter this year.
The final driver of homeownership growth? As it turns out, vacancies have been decreasing, lending more inventory to the housing market.
“The decline in vacancy rate has been an important, though silent addition to the housing supply,” said Tian Liu, Genworth Mortgage Insurance chief economist. “Homeowner vacancy rate peaked in 2008 at 2.8%, and is now under 1.6%, adding significantly to the housing supply.”
“With vacancy rates now approaching the lowest level since the early-1990s, it troughed in 1993 at 1.4%, home prices will likely rise further, and the need for more affordable new homes is also greater,” Liu said.
The homeownership vacancy rate continues to decrease amid the highly competitive housing market. It decreased from 1.7% in the first quarter of 2017 and 1.6% in the fourth quarter to 1.5% in the first quarter of 2018.
“Given the number of existing homes for sale recently dropped to a record low, it is no surprise that the homeowner vacancy rate fell to 1.5% in the first-quarter, the joint-lowest rate for 24 years,” Capital Economics Property Economist Matthew Pointon said.
Home prices are still on the rise, increasing once again in February, according to the latest monthly House Price Index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
Home prices increased 0.6% from January, the report showed. This is a slight slowdown from the 0.8% increase in January, which was revised upward to 0.9%. Annually, home prices increased 7.2% from February 2017.
The chart below shows home prices continue to increase each month, but March came down slightly from January’s nearly one-year high.
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(Source: FHFA)
The FHFA monthly HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Because of this, the selection excludes high-end homes bought with jumbo loans or cash sales.
However, one expert explained home prices could begin to moderate in 2018.
“Annual house price growth on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures has been fairly stable since the start of the year,” Capital Economics Property Economist Matthew Pointon said. “After dropping for the first time in 18-months in January, growth on the national Case-Shiller index returned to 6.3% in February.”
“A rise in debt-to-income ratios looks to have supported house price gains over the past few months but, with mortgage interest rates now on the rise, we still expect a slight moderation in growth this year,” Pointon said.
Monthly, across the nine census divisions, home price changes from January to February ranged from an increase of 0.1% in the West North Central division to an increase of 1.6% in the East South Central division.
Annually, the home price changes ranged from a low of a 4.8% increase in the Middle Atlantic division to an increase of 10.3% in the Pacific division.
Here are the states in each of the divisions:
West North Central: North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and Missouri
East South Central: Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama
Middle Atlantic: New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania
Pacific: Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, Oregon and California
Think home prices in your area are unaffordable? If you live in California, especially the Bay Area, you might be right. For everyone else, reading this article might help you feel better about home prices in your area.
A home just sold in the Bay Area for $1.23 million. It was condemned, infested with mildew and has holes in the roof, according to a new report from Travis Fedschun for Fox News.
Don’t believe me? You don’t have to. Check out the picture of the home below.
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(Source: AP PhotoBen Margot)
What’s more, the owners weren’t shocked at the price their home sold for, and even saying they originally wanted a little more than what it finally sold for.
The home in Fremont was originally listed for $1 million but ended up closing at $230,000 over its asking price, listing agent Larry Gallegos told KTVU.
“We had a couple of offers that were very close. Actually, my client, when I first met them, wanted a little bit more than that with the price they had in their mind. But they ended up being happy with this one,” he said.
The home is about 35 miles southeast of San Francisco and has three bedrooms and two baths. It was condemned in 2013.
But the two investors that bought the property don’t care about that. Actually, they intend to tear it down and build a 4,000 square foot “masterpiece” on the lot. The investors explained they were impressed with the location, which could have a view of the bay from a second-story window.
The median home sale price was $920,000 with a $173,783 minimum salary needed to purchase a home in the San Francisco area, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors back in February.
The report also showed the San Francisco area was the second most expensive city in the U.S., beat out only by the San Jose, California, area.
Construction growth saw a surge in the fourth quarter of 2017 to the highest level since the beginning of 2016, according to the latest release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The report, Gross Domestic Product by Industry: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2017, shows which of the 22 different industry groups contributed to the 2.9% increase in GDP in the fourth quarter.
A total of 16 of the 22 groups, construction included, posted a positive contribution to GDP growth in the fourth quarter, the report showed.
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After creating a pull against economic growth in the third quarter with its decrease of 1.2%, the chart below shows construction made a comeback, increasing a full 8.5% in the fourth quarter. This is the largest increase since the first quarter of 2016.
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(Source: BEA)
And real gross output, principally a measure of an industry’s sales or receipts including sales to final users in the economy and sales to other industries, increased in 18 of the 22 industry groups.
Once again, the construction industry saw a major reversal, as the chart below shows, with its turnaround from a decrease of 5.5% in the third quarter to a surge of 10.9% in the fourth quarter. This was also the largest increase since the first quarter of 2016.
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(Source: BEA)
For the real estate, rental and leasing industry, real value added increased 1.8% in 2017, after increasing 2.4% in 2016. This marked the eighth consecutive annual increase.
A recent analysis from First American Financial Corp. Chief Economist Mark Fleming shows that while housing inventory levels are low and new home starts have been a bit of a disappointment, that could soon turn around due to success in the construction industry.
“Two important trends signal that some modest relief for the housing supply shortage is on the way,” Fleming said. “The continued year-over-year growth in completions means more homes on the market in the short-term and the dramatic rise in construction employment this month indicates housing construction is likely to increase in the months ahead.”
Even as the number of new homes constructed continues to struggle, the increasing GDP within the construction industry gives hope that new home construction will soon see a surge.
In fact, at the beginning of 2018, new home sales gave the year an unexpectedly low start, however Freddie Mac explained in a report that it still believes new home sales will push the housing market forward in 2018.
Altisource, a provider of services and technologies to the mortgage and real estate industries, announced this week that it has named Patrick McClain as senior vice president, Hubzu Auction Services.
In his new role, McClain will be responsible for driving the growth of Hubzu’s residential online marketing and auction business. McClain will report to Joseph Davila, president of servicer solutions, the company said in a press release.
McClain will oversee product innovation for the company’s online auction, live auction, short sale, claims without conveyance of title and national brokerage services businesses along with Hubzu’s client management program and business development strategy, the company explained.
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“Patrick has deep and highly-relevant product expertise and a broad industry network,” said Davila. “Hubzu is one of the largest online real estate auction services platforms in the country. We welcome Patrick’s entrepreneurial approach, significant industry experience and demonstrated operational expertise as we look to substantially grow Hubzu and stay at the forefront in this market.”
McClain comes to Altisource from Auction.com, where he served as senior vice president, asset management. McClain oversaw operations of Auction.com’s REO business unit, which included company’s asset management, contracting, title and closing groups. During his 20-year tenure in the mortgage and real estate industry, McClain also held senior executive asset management roles at GMAC Mortgage and Atlas Nationwide.
“The real estate auction space is dynamic and continues to evolve,” said Altisource Chief Revenue Officer John Vella. “Adding talent like Patrick, along with our scale and innovative solutions, positions Hubzu as the leading provider of real estate auction services for home buyers and sellers and an indispensable partner for our clients.”
Looking for the next great opportunity? Visit HousingJobs, the most comprehensive mortgage finance jobs database — powered by your friends at HousingWire.
New construction surged in March, however the increase did not carry over into the single-family sector, according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Privately owned housing starts increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.32 million in March. This is up 1.9% from February’s 1.3 million in February and up a full 10.9% from 1.19 million starts in March 2017.
However, these increases did not transfer over to single-family housing starts, which decreased 3.7% from 900,000 in February to 867,000 in March, according to the report.
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“Total housing starts are important for economic growth, but single-family starts are the key to replenishing our severely depleted housing inventory,” realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale said. “In March, while the total number of starts grew to 1.32 million we saw single-family housing starts slip to 867,000, behind where we should be.”
“Last month’s single family starts are less than half of what we saw during the peak in early 2006 and roughly 30% below normal,” Hale said.
Privately owned housing units authorized by building permits increased 2.5% from 1.32 million in February and 7.5% from 1.26 million in March 2017 to 1.35 million in March this year.
However, once again, these increases were all in the multifamily sector. Single-family authorizations decreased 5.5% from 889,000 in February to 840,000 authorizations in March.
“The change towards multi-family could be the initial signs that affordability is starting to impact the mix of construction,” LendingTree Chief Economist Tendayi Kapfidze said. “Multifamily units are at lower price points and include significant rental units.”
Privately owned housing completions decreased 5.1% from February’s 1.28 million completions to 1.22 million in March, the report showed. However, this is still up 1.9% from 1.19 million completions in March 2017.
Single-family housing completions decreased 4.7% in March to 840,000 completions, down from 881,000 completions in February.
But some experts saw March’s report as good news.
“Results for housing starts and permits released this morning reflect a double dose of good news,” PwC Principal Scott Volling said. “First, the disappointing February numbers for starts were revised upward almost 5% from 1,236,000 to 1,295,000, while permits were also revised upward almost 2% from 1,298,000 to 1,321,000. The upward revisions bring February results closer to original expectations after a strong January.”
“Second, March results improved over February’s revised numbers, with starts increasing 1.9% to 1,319,000 while permits grew 2.5% to 1,354,000,” Volling said. “Impressively, both starts and permits showed sizable gains when compared to March of last year, with starts higher by 10.9% and permits higher by 7.5%.”
And another expert explained that the housing market could soon see an increase in home inventory.
“Two important trends signal that some modest relief for the housing supply shortage is on the way,” said Mark Fleming, First American Financial Corp. chief economist. “The continued year-over-year growth in completions means more homes on the market in the short-term and the dramatic rise in construction employment this month indicates housing construction is likely to increase in the months ahead.”
The chart below from First American shows the correlation between housing starts and construction employment.
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(Source: First American)
Whether it’s ranking America’s highest rates of real estate appreciation or just its highest real estate, Washington and Colorado are top of the heap.
Those states, which coincidentally have eight of the 10 highest peaks in the continental U.S., have six of the 10 Metropolitan Statistical Areas topping the recent March 1, 2018 VeroFORECAST projections from Veros Real Estate Solutions.
This is the 15th year that VeroFORECAST has provided these data-rich projections to help U.S. lenders anticipate risk and facilitate loan portfolio management. This most recent report is based on data from single-family residences, condos and townhouses in 342 MSAs. That equates to nearly 1,000 counties, over 13,600 ZIP codes, and approximately 82% of the nation’s population.
In last week’s column I drilled down into what is driving Seattle’s long run of property value appreciation. This week, we upturn our gaze to the mile-high city of Denver and the high-performing Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, Colorado metro area.
As I detailed in my first column for this HousingWire series, four of the five MSAs with the highest projected appreciation over the next 12 months are in Washington State. Ranked fourth for projected appreciation at 9.9%, Colorado’s Denver-Aurora-Broomfield MSA rounds out the top five.
THE NUMBERS ON DENVER-AURORA BROOMFIELD
The 12-month projected appreciation rate of 9.9% for the Denver-Aurora-Broomfield metro area puts it fourth among the 342 MSAs included in the March Q1 2018 VeroFORECAST report. This shows a half-percent rise in the projected appreciation rate from the previous report in December 2017, when this MSA was the sixth highest (behind a solid top five in Washington State) at 9.4%. By comparison, three years earlier, in the December 2014 report, the Denver-Aurora-Broomfield MSA was 17th on the list at just 6.9%.
This is one of the strongest markets in the country, with an extremely tight supply of homes at approximately 1.4 months and a population, currently at 2.81 million, that continues to grow rapidly. Its impressively low unemployment rate is 2.9% and, according to DataUSA, the median household income grew 5.1% between 2014 and 2015.
Charting Colorado home price fluctuations, since the beginning of this century, alongside those in New York, California and the nation, shows that the Centennial State took the shallowest dip as a result of the financial crisis beginning in late 2007. Even with that relatively mild depression, the state is now enjoying property appreciation rates that rival California’s. And, as our newest VeroFORECAST shows, no California metro is projected to outpace Denver-Aurora-Broomfield over the next 12 months.
(Click to enlarge, source: U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency)
According to the National Association of Realtors, the median property value in the Denver-Aurora-Broomfield MSA, which includes Denver County, Arapahoe County, and Jefferson County is $414,700. DataUSA’s most recent home ownership figure was over 62%. With extremely limited inventory, it’s a seller’s market. According to Apartmentlist.com, there isn’t any relief in the rental market, either. Denver rents are 12.6% above the national average and the statewide median monthly rate has risen more than 20% since 2014.
THE VIEW FROM THE FIELD
“In Denver’s scorching-hot real estate market, the supply of homes is no longer measured by traditional standards such as months of inventory, but in numbers of days,” said Anthony Rael, a REMAX Alliance broker in Arvada, Colorado. “Currently we are at ten days for homes priced from $200,000 to $399,999 and three weeks for homes priced between $400,000 and $499,999. The scarcity of available inventory is turning potential buyers into MMA fighters as they savagely negotiate to purchase a single property. In the higher priced Luxury Market, year-to-date sales of million-dollar plus homes have tripled during the last four years, which is a contributing factor in the latest record-setting average sales price for the Denver metro area.”
Rael added, in regard to his MMA reference, that buyers in his market have been offering “seller assurances” to guarantee a certain cash out-of-pocket amount if the property appraisal comes in short. So in the case of a property listed at $300,000 that gets pushed to $350,000 with an appraisal at $325,000, the buyer is now contractually obligated to make up the $25,000 difference, guaranteeing the seller the $350,000.
“Additional pot-sweeteners buyers have used to sway sellers,” Rael said, “are offers of tickets to Hamilton and Broncos games, expensive dinners, weekend getaways and so on…”
GET ALL THE DATA
Additional forecasts and infographics for U.S. markets are available for download and upon request. Visit Veros.com for the full VeroFORECAST report. Real estate and mortgage professionals and those in the financial services sector who wish to receive either the complete quarterly reports or regional reports as they are released can subscribe. For more information email communications@veros.com or call 714.415.6300, option 6.